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<h1 class="entry-title" title="Globe and Mail economics reporter David Parkinson asks four notable economists to share their views on the key issue that will grab their attention in the new year">
Oil prices and interest rates: What to watch in 2015
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David Parkinson
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The Globe and Mail</p>
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pubdate>Monday, Dec. 29 2014, 6:00 PM EST</time>
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<p>Oil. Russia. Interest rates. The United States. Europe. Commodities. China. Trade. Japan. The global economy enters 2015 with a lot on its mind, and a long list of competing storylines set to develop as the year progresses. Here, four notable economists share their views on the key issue that will grab their attention in 2015 – and how it might unfold, for better or worse.</p>
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<p><strong>Eric Lascelles</strong></p><p><strong>Chief economist, RBC Global Asset Management – Toronto</strong></p><p>Collapsing oil prices are poised to reverberate across 2015. If current pricing sticks, global producers will lose over a trillion dollars in annual profits, crimping their investment intentions and impairing their ability to pay dividends and debts.</p><p>Oil-exporting nations – Canada among them – naturally suffer, with the greatest agony reserved for emerging-market members who must perversely raise interest rates to halt capital flight and combat ballooning U.S.-denominated debt loads.</p><p>Desperate times lead to desperate measures, meaning Russia and the Middle East must be watched with an eagle eye next year.</p><p>However, let us not lose sight of the bigger picture. Oil’s extreme dislocation should partially unwind in 2015. After all, oil supply outpaces demand by a mere 2 per cent. There is no need for extreme cutbacks, especially if demand grows as enthusiastically as our models indicate.</p><p>For that matter, the global economy actually likes low oil prices. For all of the bellyaching, every dollar lost by oil producers is more than recovered across a diffuse set of oil consumers. Indeed, the combination of low oil prices, low bond yields and weakening exchange rates should help revive the moribund European and Japanese economies. This could prove to be the most lasting consequence of oil’s not-so-excellent adventure.</p><p><strong>Julian Jessop</strong></p><p><strong>Chief global economist, Capital Economics – London</strong></p><p>The year 2014 closed with a focus on the oil price, but developments in other commodity markets will also be worth watching in 2015. The knock-on effects could work in either direction.</p><p>We expect the price of oil to remain low. As energy is an important cost in the production and transportation of other commodities, this is one reason to expect price pressures more generally to be weak.</p><p>Nonetheless, most countries – and the world as a whole – should be better off as a result of lower oil prices, notably China and India. Of the advanced economies, Japan is the biggest winner, but there should also be sizable boosts to the U.S., euro zone and Britain. The upshot is that cheaper oil should support a rebound in the prices of industrial metals as economic activity picks up.</p><p>What’s more, China and India are the two largest markets for gold. While inflation will be lower as a result of the fall in oil prices, global monetary policy is also likely to be looser for longer. We, therefore, expect base and precious metals prices to do well in 2015, improving the prospects for miners and the more diversified commodity economies.</p><p><strong>Christopher Ragan</strong></p><p><strong>Professor of economics, McGill University – Montreal</strong></p><p>What should we expect from the world of central banking in 2015? I see two major forces.</p><p>First, given that real gross domestic product in the euro zone is still 2 per cent below the 2008 level, there’s a pretty clear economic case for more fiscal and monetary stimulus. On the other hand, the political forces in opposition to such actions continue to be massive. My best guess for 2015 is that the euro zone will continue to muddle through, without much new stimulus of any kind.</p><p>Meanwhile, the United States is showing ever-more promising signs of an economic renaissance. The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has stopped its expansion, and most observers think that policy interest rates will begin their ascent in 2015. While such rate increases may wreak havoc on financial markets for a while, their existence will be a positive sign for the United States and for the world.</p><p>These different economic scenarios suggest that the U.S. dollar will be strengthening against the euro. How the Canadian dollar fares in such a situation is unclear, although the single best predictor for the Canadian dollar is still the path of world commodity prices – which is pretty much anybody’s guess.</p><p><strong>Carl Weinberg</strong></p><p><strong>Chief economist, High Frequency Economics – Valhalla, N.Y.</strong></p><p>My biggest worry for 2015 is of a default by Russia on its foreign debt. Vladimir Putin could intentionally renege on his foreign debt obligations – an Argentine approach – or Russia could just run out of liquid foreign-exchange assets. Russia owes $670-billion (U.S.) to foreigners. No one is sure who owns it all. Most of it likely is not in the hands of banks. We should remember that LTCM [Long-Term Capital Management] in the U.S. was not a bank, but its failure did a lot of damage to the financial system.</p><p>I am also waiting to see if an anti-austerity government comes to power in Greece and defaults on its debts to EFSF, the IMF and Euroland governments. EFSF has sold €180-billion ($254-billion Canadian) in bonds, backed largely by loans to Greece. In the worst case, banks and hedge funds owning these AAA bonds will find them downgraded. Some of them may fail. Euroland’s governments may have to ante up real money to recapitalize EFSF, triggering a fiscal crisis.</p><p>Finally, I worry that Britain’s current account deficit – at a record nearly 6 per cent of GDP – is wide enough to trigger a sterling crisis. The government has no strategy for external deficit reduction. A sterling crash would blow out inflation; the interest rate response would kill the economy.</p>
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- When I decided to leave my own corporate job years ago to pursue the culinary arts, I couldn’t think much further than doing what I love on a daily basis: cooking. But it soon became clear to me that leaving the safety of one career to take up another is not quite that simple." width="140" height="78">
</a>
<h6 class="art-label"><a name="lt_HomeSection.1" href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/small-business/sb-managing/leadership/"><span class="lblmk bgbusiness"></span> Leadership</a></h6>
<h5 class="articleTitle articleTitle--default">
<a name="lt_Headline.1" href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/small-business/sb-managing/leadership/five-essential-ingredients-to-doing-what-you-love-for-a-living/article22274738/" title="Jan 03, 2015 5:00AM EST - When I decided to leave my own corporate job years ago to pursue the culinary arts, I couldn’t think much further than doing what I love on a daily basis: cooking. But it soon became clear to me that leaving the safety of one career to take up another is not quite that simple." >
Five essential ingredients to doing what you love for a living
</a>
</h5>
</article>
</div>
</div>
<div class="column-2 gridcol">
<div class="widget_stories view_pic lt4197912">
<article class="art--column img_top img_w140 last_image clearfix" data-vr-contentbox="">
<a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/what-drives-anti-immigrant-sentiment/article22275323/" name="lt_Picture.1" class="o-ctx ">
<img src="http://static.theglobeandmail.ca/36a/globe-debate/article19928219.ece/ALTERNATES/w140/Screen+Shot+2013-04-02+at+3.JPG" class="art-img art-img--column" alt="" title="Jan 03, 2015 3:00AM EST
- National, religious and cultural identities are being transformed by a globalized world" width="140" height="78">
</a>
<h6 class="art-label"><a name="lt_HomeSection.1" href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/"><span class="lblmk bgcommentary"></span> Globe Debate</a></h6>
<h5 class="articleTitle articleTitle--default">
<a name="lt_Headline.1" href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/what-drives-anti-immigrant-sentiment/article22275323/" title="Jan 03, 2015 3:00AM EST - National, religious and cultural identities are being transformed by a globalized world" >
What drives anti-immigrant sentiment?
</a>
</h5>
</article>
</div>
</div>
<div class="column-3 gridcol">
<div class="widget_stories view_pic lt4197913">
<article class="art--news img_top img_w140 last_image clearfix" data-vr-contentbox="">
<a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/tanguay-and-duchene-score-in-shootout-as-avs-beat-oilers/article22282778/" name="lt_Picture.1" class="o-ctx ">
<img src="http://static.theglobeandmail.ca/8e2/sports/hockey/article22282777.ece/ALTERNATES/w140/USATSI_184216_NHL.JPG" class="art-img art-img--news" alt="" title="Jan 03, 2015 12:16AM EST
- Semyon Varlamov had 27 saves in 2-1 win" width="140" height="78">
</a>
<h6 class="art-label"><a name="lt_HomeSection.1" href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/"><span class="lblmk bgsports"></span> Hockey</a></h6>
<h5 class="articleTitle articleTitle--default">
<a name="lt_Headline.1" href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/tanguay-and-duchene-score-in-shootout-as-avs-beat-oilers/article22282778/" title="Jan 03, 2015 12:16AM EST - Semyon Varlamov had 27 saves in 2-1 win" >
Tanguay and Duchene score in shootout as Avs beat Oilers
</a>
</h5>
</article>
</div>
</div>
<div class="column-4 gridcol">
<div class="widget_stories view_pic lt4197916">
<article class="art--news img_top img_w140 last_image clearfix" data-vr-contentbox="">
<a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/horoscopes/january-3-your-daily-horoscope/article22144803/" name="lt_Picture.1" class="o-ctx ">
<img src="http://static.theglobeandmail.ca/2e8/migration_catalog/Life/article804701.ece/ALTERNATES/w140/capricorn-logo" class="art-img art-img--news" alt="" title="Jan 03, 2015 12:01AM EST
- Your daily horoscope" width="140" height="78">
</a>
<h6 class="art-label"><a name="lt_HomeSection.1" href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/horoscopes/"><span class="lblmk bglife"></span> Horoscopes</a></h6>
<h5 class="articleTitle articleTitle--default">
<a name="lt_Headline.1" href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/horoscopes/january-3-your-daily-horoscope/article22144803/" title="Jan 03, 2015 12:01AM EST - Your daily horoscope" >
January 3: Your daily horoscope
</a>
</h5>
</article>
</div>
</div>
<div class="column-5 gridcol">
<div class="widget_stories view_pic lt4197920">
<article class="art--news img_top img_w140 last_image clearfix" data-vr-contentbox="">
<a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-drive/culture/accessories/stop-playing-parking-space-roulette-with-one-app/article22238854/" name="lt_Picture.1" class="o-ctx ">
<img src="http://static.theglobeandmail.ca/91c/globe-drive/culture/accessories/article22238853.ece/ALTERNATES/w140/iOS+Simulator+Screen+Shot+24+Nov+2014+15.35.37.png" class="art-img art-img--news" alt="" title="Jan 03, 2015 5:00AM EST
- Coveted spots at your fingertips with the app Parkopedia created by Eugene Tsyrklevich" width="140" height="78">
</a>
<h6 class="art-label"><a name="lt_HomeSection.1" href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-drive/culture/accessories/"><span class="lblmk bgglobedrive"></span> Accessories</a></h6>
<h5 class="articleTitle articleTitle--default">
<a name="lt_Headline.1" href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-drive/culture/accessories/stop-playing-parking-space-roulette-with-one-app/article22238854/" title="Jan 03, 2015 5:00AM EST - Coveted spots at your fingertips with the app Parkopedia created by Eugene Tsyrklevich" >
Stop playing parking space roulette with this app
</a>
</h5>
</article>
</div>
</div>
<div class="column-6 gridcol">
<div class="widget_stories view_pic lt4197925">
<article class="art--vmevideo img_top img_w140 last_image clearfix" data-vr-contentbox="">
<a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/technology/technology-video/video-footage-shows-launch-of-3600-kg-experiment-designed-to-scan-for-signs-of-early-universe/article22273829/" name="lt_Picture.1" class="o-ctx ">
<img src="http://static.theglobeandmail.ca/de4/incoming/article22273892.ece/ALTERNATES/w140/Screen+Shot+2015-01-02+at+10.08.53+AM.jpg" class="art-img art-img--vmevideo" alt="" title="Jan 02, 2015 10:05AM EST
- The SPIDER experiment was launched in Antarctica on January 1, 2015. Partly built in Canada, SPIDER will drift for about 20 days, scanning the sky for microwave signals from the early universe. Its data will be used to refine theories of how the cosmos originated." width="140" height="78">
<span class="sprite video-s"><span></span></span>
</a>
<h6 class="art-label"><a name="lt_HomeSection.1" href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/technology/technology-video/"><span class="lblmk bgtechnology"></span> Technology Video</a></h6>
<h5 class="articleTitle articleTitle--default">
<a name="lt_Headline.1" href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/technology/technology-video/video-footage-shows-launch-of-3600-kg-experiment-designed-to-scan-for-signs-of-early-universe/article22273829/" title="Jan 02, 2015 10:05AM EST - The SPIDER experiment was launched in Antarctica on January 1, 2015. Partly built in Canada, SPIDER will drift for about 20 days, scanning the sky for microwave signals from the early universe. Its data will be used to refine theories of how the cosmos originated." >
Footage shows successful launch of 3,600-kg experiment designed to reveal cosmic origins
</a>
</h5>
</article>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<div class="x620x300 clearfix">
<div class="column-1 gridcol">
<section>
<h3 class='ucm'>Video</h3>
<div class="main_items" data-vr-zone="Video">
<div class="x140x140x140x140 clearfix">
<div class="column-1 gridcol">
<div class="widget_stories view_pic lt4197968">
<article class="art--vmevideo img_top img_w140 last_image clearfix" data-vr-contentbox="">
<a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/news-video/video-fire-truck-overturns-injuring-two-missouri-firefighters/article22274819/" name="lt_Picture.1" class="o-ctx ">
<img src="http://static.theglobeandmail.ca/0a1/video/article22274818.ece/ALTERNATES/w140/2015-01-02T174234Z_1_LOVEB011D6XZI_RTRMADP_0_USA-MISSOURI-FIRE-TRUCK-CRASH-ROUGH-CUT-O.XML" class="art-img art-img--vmevideo" alt="" title="Jan 02, 2015 2:26PM EST
- Two firefighters were hurt after their fire truck overturned in St. Clair, Missouri." width="140" height="78">
<span class="sprite video-s"><span></span></span>
</a>
<h5 class="articleTitle articleTitle--default">
<a name="lt_Headline.1" href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/news-video/video-fire-truck-overturns-injuring-two-missouri-firefighters/article22274819/" title="Jan 02, 2015 2:26PM EST - Two firefighters were hurt after their fire truck overturned in St. Clair, Missouri." >
Fire truck overturns injuring two Missouri firefighters
</a>
</h5>
</article>
</div>
</div>
<div class="column-2 gridcol">
<div class="widget_stories view_pic lt4197969">
<article class="art--vmevideo img_top img_w140 last_image clearfix" data-vr-contentbox="">
<a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/arts/arts-video/video-ctv-montreal-selma-film-sheds-light-on-mlk/article22275315/" name="lt_Picture.1" class="o-ctx ">
<img src="http://static.theglobeandmail.ca/1d4/incoming/article22275406.ece/ALTERNATES/w140/Screen-Shot-2015-01-02-at-2.20.05-PM.jpg" class="art-img art-img--vmevideo" alt="" title="Jan 02, 2015 2:17PM EST
- Mose Persico talks to Tom Wilkinson and David Oyelowo about the new film set in racially-turbulent sixties" width="140" height="78">
<span class="sprite video-s"><span></span></span>
</a>
<h5 class="articleTitle articleTitle--default">
<a name="lt_Headline.1" href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/arts/arts-video/video-ctv-montreal-selma-film-sheds-light-on-mlk/article22275315/" title="Jan 02, 2015 2:17PM EST - Mose Persico talks to Tom Wilkinson and David Oyelowo about the new film set in racially-turbulent sixties" >
Why 'Selma' honours the memory of Martin Luther King Jr.
</a>
</h5>
</article>
</div>
</div>
<div class="column-3 gridcol">
<div class="widget_stories view_pic lt4197970">
<article class="art--vmevideo img_top img_w140 last_image clearfix" data-vr-contentbox="">
<a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-drive/drive-video/video-ctv-calgary-uk-driver-has-trouble-at-the-pumps/article22246965/" name="lt_Picture.1" class="o-ctx ">
<img src="http://static.theglobeandmail.ca/3cf/incoming/article22247366.ece/ALTERNATES/w140/Screen+Shot+2014-12-31+at+11.58.37+AM.jpg" class="art-img art-img--vmevideo" alt="" title="Dec 31, 2014 11:59AM EST
- Calgary's Worst Driver may have a new challenger with this U.K. woman having a bit of difficulty getting in the right position at a gas station." width="140" height="78">
<span class="sprite video-s"><span></span></span>
</a>
<h5 class="articleTitle articleTitle--default">
<a name="lt_Headline.1" href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-drive/drive-video/video-ctv-calgary-uk-driver-has-trouble-at-the-pumps/article22246965/" title="Dec 31, 2014 11:59AM EST - Calgary's Worst Driver may have a new challenger with this U.K. woman having a bit of difficulty getting in the right position at a gas station." >
Surveillance footage captures bad driver struggling at gas station
</a>
</h5>
</article>
</div>
</div>
<div class="column-4 gridcol">
<div class="widget_stories view_pic lt4197971">
<article class="art--vmevideo img_top img_w140 last_image clearfix" data-vr-contentbox="">
<a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/video/video-gm-issues-three-new-recalls/article22274144/" name="lt_Picture.1" class="o-ctx ">
<img src="http://static.theglobeandmail.ca/373/video/article22274143.ece/ALTERNATES/w140/2015-01-02T155119Z_1_LOVEB01181IWC_RTRMADP_0_USA-GM-RECALL-O.XML" class="art-img art-img--vmevideo" alt="" title="Jan 02, 2015 2:37PM EST
- GM announced three recalls on January 1st involving SUVs and pickup trucks. More than 83,000 vehicles affected in the primary recall surrounding ignition lock systems. Shartia Brantley reports" width="140" height="78">
<span class="sprite video-s"><span></span></span>
</a>
<h5 class="articleTitle articleTitle--default">
<a name="lt_Headline.1" href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/video/video-gm-issues-three-new-recalls/article22274144/" title="Jan 02, 2015 2:37PM EST - GM announced three recalls on January 1st involving SUVs and pickup trucks. More than 83,000 vehicles affected in the primary recall surrounding ignition lock systems. Shartia Brantley reports" >
GM issues three new recalls
</a>
</h5>
</article>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
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<section>
<h3 class='ucm'>Photos</h3>
<div class="main_items" data-vr-zone="Photos">
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<div class="widget_stories view_pic lt4178523">
<article class="art--gallery img_top img_w140 last_image clearfix" data-vr-contentbox="">
<a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/toronto/a-cranes-eye-view-of-toronto/article22277725/" name="lt_Picture.1" class="o-ctx ">
<img src="http://static.theglobeandmail.ca/521/news/toronto/article22277718.ece/ALTERNATES/w140/crane-scenes02to1.JPG" class="art-img art-img--gallery" alt="" title="Jan 02, 2015 4:34PM EST
- Perched atop the L Tower condos on The Esplanade, crane operator Robert MacFarlane captures the Toronto skyline like no one else. The 57-year-old father of three shares images from his unique vantage point on social media, where he goes by the handle SkyJacked793 on Twitter and Instagram. Mr. MacFarlane’s Twitter account has amassed 8,400 followers, who are treated with views of the downtown city core through his eyes. He has tweeted just more than 13,000 pictures so far, ranging from EdgeWalk players taking daring steps off the CN Tower to planes landing on the Toronto Islands. He will be snapping pictures from the L Tower for a little longer, but how much longer exactly remains to be seen, he said. Here are some of his most breathtaking images of Toronto from the last year – 210 metres above the city." width="140" height="78">
<span class="sprite gallery-s"></span>
</a>
<h5 class="articleTitle articleTitle--default">
<a name="lt_Headline.1" href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/toronto/a-cranes-eye-view-of-toronto/article22277725/" title="Jan 02, 2015 4:34PM EST - Perched atop the L Tower condos on The Esplanade, crane operator Robert MacFarlane captures the Toronto skyline like no one else. The 57-year-old father of three shares images from his unique vantage point on social media, where he goes by the handle SkyJacked793 on Twitter and Instagram. Mr. MacFarlane’s Twitter account has amassed 8,400 followers, who are treated with views of the downtown city core through his eyes. He has tweeted just more than 13,000 pictures so far, ranging from EdgeWalk players taking daring steps off the CN Tower to planes landing on the Toronto Islands. He will be snapping pictures from the L Tower for a little longer, but how much longer exactly remains to be seen, he said. Here are some of his most breathtaking images of Toronto from the last year – 210 metres above the city." >
A crane’s eye view of Toronto
</a>
</h5>
</article>
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<div class="column-2 gridcol">
<div class="widget_stories view_pic lt4178505">
<article class="art--gallery img_top img_w140 last_image clearfix" data-vr-contentbox="">
<a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/world-juniors/images-from-the-quarter-finals-at-the-world-juniors/article22277912/" name="lt_Picture.1" class="o-ctx ">
<img src="http://static.theglobeandmail.ca/667/sports/hockey/world-juniors/article22277899.ece/ALTERNATES/w140/522143019_460977226.JPG" class="art-img art-img--gallery" alt="" title="Jan 02, 2015 4:48PM EST
- Elimination games begin in the annual tournament" width="140" height="79">
<span class="sprite gallery-s"></span>
</a>
<h5 class="articleTitle articleTitle--default">
<a name="lt_Headline.1" href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/world-juniors/images-from-the-quarter-finals-at-the-world-juniors/article22277912/" title="Jan 02, 2015 4:48PM EST - Elimination games begin in the annual tournament" >
Images from the quarter-finals at the world juniors
</a>
</h5>
</article>
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